The contemporary security situation in Europe is affected by an increasingly hybrid threat landscape, in which covert and overt measures of threats and warfare merge. NATO defines hybrid threats as a combination of military and non-military measures, deployed to blur the lines between war and peace, and exploit the weaknesses in societies, and often particularly democracies (NATO, 2023). Elements of hybrid means can be influence campaigns, cyberattacks, economic pressure, use of irregular or regular military forces. They may be deployed in a synchronized matter to multiply effects.

Security authorities have long warned against influence operations and hybrid threats in interstate conflicts. The number of news articles in Norwegian media that dealt with hybrid threats in 2022 was fourfold from previous years. Politicians, researchers and security authorities see a need for a stronger total defense where a prepared and resistant civilian population plays an important role.

Researchers at SINTEF have studied the English-language research literature on hybrid threats and hybrid war. The study shows that the number of articles increased significantly after Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and has risen in line with developments in the war. No less than 62 of the 123 articles focus on Russian hybrid warfare and are in general largely concerned with information-related means. In addition, we have analyzed 365 Norwegian news articles from 2020-2022 that mention hybrid threats. Almost a hundred of the articles refer to influence, such as influence operations, campaigns or activities. Influence is clearly on the public and scientific agenda.

The Economist's democracy index shows that democratic rule is in retreat globally. Only 6.4 percent of the world's population live in countries with full democracy in 2023. But the population's expectation of democracy and freedom of expression can be as important as the actual conditions. Europe is known for generally high levels of trust in democratic institutions such as authorities and the media. When security tension increases in Europe, countries can benefit from broad and open discussions about their role in it. If citizens feel that political decisions become facts without being included in the processes, trust in authorities and the media will weaken.

Although many Europeans can participate in free, regular elections, the basis for political participation is founded in everyday life. Vulnerability to influence operations occurs during election campaigns, but also in the periods in between. This must be considering when assessing the security threats, and when looking for solutions.

With an unpredictable worldview, we can benefit from standing united behind political decisions in Europe. But we do not stand united without popular support for these decisions. A high defense capacity requires broad participation in the population to stand against the strategic use of information as a weapon. Deep understanding of national and international security political priorities and awareness of international development is important for total preparedness. Hybrid threats can appear as isolated and unexplained events. The ability to see them in context and interpret them in a larger picture is best achieved through broad debate, more critical questions and more discussion.

It is a paradox that freedom of expression can be portrayed as dangerous to democracy, for which it is a fundamental prerequisite.

Written by:

Marte Høiby, SINTEF Digital, Norway
Nina Bjørge, SINTEF Digital, Norway
Øyvind Kalnes, Høgskolen i Innlandet, Norway